Moderate positive growth in an uncertain environment in the second half of the year, according to AMKTG

As we do every semester, we’re bringing you up to date on the findings of this biannual study, conducted by GfK Spain in collaboration with the Spanish Marketing Association (AMKT), which measures the expectations of nearly 200 CMOs from large companies operating in 15 economic sectors regarding, among other things, marketing and advertising spending trends for the second half of the year.

Although this is a relatively small sample, the IEDM is considered a leading indicator of GDP performance and is consistent with other confidence indicators, such as those from the OECD or the INE.

Moderate positive growth in an uncertain environment

Some cause for concern: 39% of CMOs remain pessimistic, and only 18% consider themselves more optimistic, even though the decline in expectations for the second half of 2025 has slowed. However, expectations for the performance of their own market are positive (+1.9%) and have risen slightly—by 0.1—compared to previous months. Meanwhile, forecasts for their own sales (+3.1%) have also improved slightly by one-tenth of a percentage point.

However, the results for the past semester turned out to be better than expected for 33% of the companies surveyed, and 39% met their expectations, compared with 28% that fell short of their goals.

The automotive, sports, and entertainment sectors are growing. This is the outlook for the second half of the year for these sectors, which are expected to see very strong growth. Tourism, banking, and technology are performing above average. Energy and insurance are showing positive, though moderate, growth. In the case of consumer goods, retail, media, marketing services, and healthcare, projected growth is modest, and in education, there may even be a decline.

External factors that will impact marketing activities: The majority of CMOs cite inflation (81%), which continues to rank first. This is followed by the country’s economic growth forecast (77%), economic developments in the EU (63%), and changes in interest rates (62%). This survey includes the war in Iran for the first time, which ranks sixth with 58%, very close to the political climate in Spain (59%).

Investment in marketing and advertising is on the rise

Marketing investment expectations for the second half of 2026 have improved by one-tenth of a percentage point, reaching +1.6%. The share of marketing investment in total business revenue has also increased slightly, by four-tenths of a percentage point, to 8.5%.

• Advertising spending rose by 0.6 percentage points (+1.8%), coming close to the forecasts made exactly one year ago—which marked the highest percentage increase since the second half of 2018.
• Advertising spending on online media continues to grow: today, 76% of companies allocate more than 20% of their advertising budget to digital media, and 54% allocate more than 40%.